Goldman Sachs Research estimates a potential $6 billion market in people-sized robots in the next 10 to 15 years that could fill 4% of the projected US manufacturing labor shortage by 2030 and 2% of global elderly care demand by 2035.
- The are massive worker shortages globally. Especially in areas like elder care where demand is growing rapidly (the global population is aging)
- $40 TRILLION per year (!) is spend on labor globally.
- Goldman Sachs (important investing influencer) is saying that humanoid robots are starting to replace the worker shortage.
- Once the first commercially viable robot is available, expect for it to be commonly available within 5 to 10 years.
Goldman Sachs Article:
Humanoid Robots: Sooner Than You Might Think
- Goldman Sachs Research estimates a potential $6 billion market in people-sized robots in the next 10 to 15 years that could fill 4% of the projected US manufacturing labor shortage by 2030 and 2% of global elderly care demand by 2035.
- A more ambitious projection suggests a market of up to $154 billion by 2035 in a blue-sky scenario, which could fill 48% to 126% of the labor gap and 53% of the elderly caregiver gap.
- However, today’s humanoid robots can only work in short bursts, and none can handle both mobility and cognitive challenges, so significant technological breakthroughs are needed.
- The battery life, mobility, processing abilities, sensing, training, and production costs of humanoid robots need to improve significantly to be economically viable in factory and consumer applications.
- Cobots (factory collaborative robots) took roughly 7 to 10 years to go from first commercially available versions to batch sales, and humanoid robots could find a place in fields that current major industrial robot makers are having difficulty serving, such as warehouse and logistics management.
- Consumer/household applications are significantly harder to design due to diverse scenarios, object recognition, and navigation, among other issues, including conflicts surrounding replacing human workers, trust and safety, privacy, and ethical concerns.